VB2002 part 2: maybe the Internet should die

Rob Rosenberger, Vmyths co-founder
Tuesday, 7 January 2003 [continued from part 1:
"Cyber-terrorists will win,
but please buy AV software until then"] MODERATOR CAREY NACHENBERG (Symantec) reissued his question to the VB2002 speakers' panel. Righard Zwienenberg (Norman ASA) talked about how "airliners will go bankrupt within three days" if the Internet goes offline for a mere 20 minutes. Incredibly, he pondered "maybe it should happen":

"Think about the implications," urged Righard Zwienenberg (Norman ASA). "Airliners will go bankrupt within three days of the Internet [for] 20 minutes being down."

"Maybe it should happen," he pondered.

02:22 Panel moderator Carey Nachenberg (Symantec):
I know we haven't seen it, but my question is— is that something that's feasible that we can imagine happen, that we can envision of such a scenario that it's feasible today or with today's technology, that that can happen?
02:31 Dmitry Gryaznov (Network Associates):
The [unknown] question was [unknown] until after my comment was [unknown]. If— I mean, how am I supposed to know the damage? If, because the other corporations, for example, if you have knowledge that [unknown] for, I don't know, a day [or] two?
02:46 Nachenberg:
That's a good question.
02:47 Rob Rosenberger (Vmyths):
[speaking into the tape recorder]
(Dmitry Gryaznov.)
02:48 Righard Zwienenberg (Norman ASA):
Maybe it should happen.
02:50 Nachenberg:
Maybe it should happen! Okay...
02:51 Zwienenberg:
Because those with the [unknown] back with our feet on the ground, think about the implications. Airliners will go bankrupt within three days of the Internet [for] 20 minutes being down. Maybe it happens, so [garbled by Nachenberg's words]—
03:03 Nachenberg:
So if I can translate what you're saying, you're saying that you believe that it could happen and maybe it should.
03:07 Zwienenberg:
It definitely can happen. [nervous rumble of laughter]
03:08 Nachenberg:
Okay. All right. Rob, you writing all this down? This should be very interesting.
03:12 Rosenberger:
[booming voice]
I'm recording it.

Let's recall a bit of trivia, shall we? The entire U.S. commercial airfleet shut down for three days in September 2001 — oh, plus they lost four aircraft and I think some employees died. Only a third of the normal passenger volume chose to fly when the friendly skies reopened. It occurred at a time when the industry struggled to (a) reorganize after TWA's bankruptcy and (b) wipe out mom-and-pop travel agencies. The events of September 2001 gave carriers an excuse to end travel agent commissions, plus it gave them an excuse to lay off over 100,000 employees, plus it gave U.S. Airways & Vanguard Airlines an excuse to accelerate their own bankruptcy plans.
A debt-burdened U.S. airline industry survived four jet crashes and three full days of canceled flights and massive layoffs in September 2001 — but they can't survive a 20-minute Internet outage as of September 2002?
Yes yes yes, I know it happened a looooong time ago to a minor transportation subgroup in a country far far away, but think hard! You may remember it. So let me see if I get this straight. A debt-burdened U.S. airline industry survived four jet crashes and three full days of canceled flights and weeks of short passenger manifests and massive layoffs and a string of bankruptcies in September 2001 — but they can't survive a 20-minute Internet outage as of September 2002? Hmph. Waitaminit. Did Zwienenberg mean airliners would go bankrupt within three days if the Internet went down for 20 minutes each day? I'll grudgingly admit I can visualize the death of global commercial air travel under such a scenario. Now, I don't want you to think I abhor Zwienenberg's "maybe it should happen" beliefs. Quite the contrary: I subscribe to the same beliefs. If the fearmongers are right — if the Internet can't survive a predicted cybertastrophe — then I want Darwinism to take its course as soon as possible. I want terrorists to drag-and-drop western civilization into the recycle bin with all due speed. In the final analysis, what doesn't kill the survivors will make them stronger. Western civilization stands a better chance of survival if cyber-Darwinism takes its toll sooner rather than later. So let the airliners suffer a 20-minute Internet outage!
JIMMY KUO (NETWORK Associates) raised his hand in the audience to inject a comment. He didn't confirm or deny the Internet's potential demise or its impact on modern civilization. Instead, he offered a bit of sage advice:

03:13 Nachenberg:
(Jim, you want to go?)
03:14 Jimmy Kuo (Network Associates):
(Yeah.) I'd like to say that whether it can or will happen is relevant to whether you should take steps to make it— to be a good neighbor and inhibit yourself from being contributatory to this, and all that. So it doesn't really matter whether you think it will or won't happen. You still should be hardening your system and all that.

True believers of the apocalypse will endorse antivirus products that fail to protect by design. Talk about irony!
A true believer of the apocalypse could argue Kuo's "good neighbor" philosophy will fall apart if the agnostics don't care enough to protect themselves. Fair enough — but many (perhaps most) of the true believers endorse products that fail to protect by design. Talk about irony! Hey, let's digress for a moment. Would you like to poke fun at the true believers? If somebody proclaims the Internet is doomed, ask them what security products they recommend. Then get wild-eyed and point at the person and scream "False prophet! False prophet!" Heh heh.
[continued in part 3:
Whole economies might
die with the Internet]